As international pressure increases on the Syrian regime and protests across the country still seem to appear with the same demands of toppling the regime in Syria, the current situation seems to have reached a tipping point. As for the regime it can no longer keep the level of violence it has practiced for the past five months due to the growing international pressure. It my seem that those in the regime have finally understood that the protests will not be hindered by violence, however, if those in the regime are willing to convert Syria into a North Korea then we may not see a reduction in violence by regime on Syrians. By ending the violence and the "security solution" of ending the protests in Syria, the regime has lost its only method of staying in power as neither the protest movement will accept a regime that has killed so far more than 2000 people, on the other hand internationally the US and other European countries have called for Bashar to step aside.
What is more interesting now is what happens at a domestic level in Syria. There have been so many analysis of what has now been called the "Arab Spring" and how revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt have been drailed and hijacked with very pessimistic outlooks in most analysis I have read on both the Tunisian and Egyptian experience. So if we are to learn from not so past experiences we maybe able to avoid the mishaps that have occured in both Tunisia and Egypt. In my opinion the following is what Syrian activists need to be considering at this stage in preparation for what may happen after regime falls while reflecting on events in both Tunisia and Egypt.
1) In both Tunisia and Egypt revolutions happened spontaneously and the fall of the regime happened relatively quickly. This has been a major obstacle post regime as it:
- didn't give enough time for revolutionary activists to plan properly the transitional phase and were left spending most of their time planning on how to topple the regime.
- Created confusion and allowed different political parties that existed to devise mechanisms in reaching the aims of the revolution independently which has lead to alot of collision between the different parties.
That is not the case in Syria as we have had so far 5 months to prepare a transitional period. In my opinion that should have been the role of Syrian politicians and activists in abroad/exile that should have been meeting to plan this transitional period instead of meeting just for the sake of meeting or so what it seemed with all the conferences that they have done. This plan for a transitional period should have the acceptance of politicians, activists and thinkers in Syria.
2) Both revolutions didn't have a leader that spoke for it and was present to lead the transitional period. Although it is great to see that the revolutions were created by the youth and didn't require anyones assistance, there needs to be a person that has backing from all sides of the revolution that will lead the change required. What happened in Tunisia and Egypt can be seen as two halves, a peoples revolution and a military coupe, with the military appointing the leader that would take charge of the transitional period and in both countries that leader was an member of the previous regime in one way or another.
In regards to Syria what we can learn is that there can be no one with previous relations to the regime undertaking the transitional phase and neither should the military be left to control this phase. It is not necessary that there should be one person that will lead the transitional phase, it could be a council. However it should be made up of independent activists and politicians that will not abuse their powers in favour of one party or the other and they should be accepted by the people to lead this transitional phase.
3) Being able to differentiate between the aims of toppling the regime and holding regime accountable for actions during the revolution with aims after the revolution. More importantly are the mechanisms for reaching those aims as mentioned earlier. We all know that the aims of the revolution are to end corruption, create a representative system of the people, give people their rights and freedom of opinion and speech, allowing free media and a free and independent judiciary that will maintain peoples rights. Thats very good but there needs to be a clear mechanism of reaching those aims and that is also the responsibility of politicians and activists at this point and even before this point. It is no good of setting aims without knowing how to accomplish them. What I think is more dangerous is ignoring this aspect and to say that this could all be done AFTER the regime has fallen, because when regime falls and there hasn't been anything planned then expect there will be those that will try to hijack and reap benefits of what the revolution has been able to achieve and give nothing back to the people.
4) Those that have been part of the previous regime or had ties to it or were members of the ruling parties should not be allowed to take part in this transitional period no matter how sincere or "Good" people think they are. Not saying that those that are not related to previous regime are angels but the fact that they stood by the revolution rather than staying quiet is a merit.
5) Accomplishing the above is important especially when it comes to Syria. There is still a silent majority although in recent weeks many have now gone tired of the situation or have seen that the regime for what it really is. This silent majority (especially in Damascus and Aleppo) is controlled by fear of the unknown. What needs to be done be activists within Syria whether LCC or any other entity is to address the fears of those people and to show them that regime change is not something that will lead to disastrous consequences. Accomplishing the above will re-ensure those people that there is an alternative that can lead the change and there are competent people that keep Syria's national interests and won't let go of our national standards (i.e. resistance and unity).
As I've said earlier, there have been many analysis done by renowned individuals regarding the events in the Arab world. I think it is better for those people to be planning and giving action plans or steps that will maintain the revolution after the regime has been toppled which would be more beneficial to most of us rather than writing long academic analysis of what happened in the past.
